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Secondary Sales Demand Forecasting: Beverage Producer

Beer

Secondary Sales Demand Forecasting: Beverage Producer

Industry

Multinational Brewing Company

Description

Faced with limited product data points, Stemly obtained over 89% forecast accuracy at a monthly level.

Scope

  • Demand forecasting for a customer in South America
  • Looking for a step-change in improvement in forecast accuracies
  • Automate understanding of the changes in the demand patterns and ability to get insights.
  • Ability to automate demand review collaborative process with Demand planners, demand managers, sales, and marketing teams
  • Improvements in storage cost to serve and inventory turnovers through forecast accuracy

Solution

  • Data received for 465 products from 2014 – May 2019
  • The forecast was conducted for M-1 and M-3 (for Jun-Aug 2019) at two level of:
    • Month / Product / Region / Zone / Channel
    • Month / Product
  • Forecasts generated with multiple statistical (ARIMA, Holt Winter, etc) and machine learning (CatBoost, XG Boost, Random Forest) techniques
  • Analyses:
    • Exploratory Data Analysis
    • Feature engineering and importance
    • Forecasts outputs and error analysis (MAPE)

Results

  • M-1 Forecast accuracy is 89% at the product / monthly level
  • M-3 Forecast accuracy is 84% at the product / monthly level
  • Did not have data on prices and promotions
  • Insights will improve significantly with such data

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