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Demand Forecasting: E-Commerce

Global Luxury Cosmetics

Demand Forecasting: E-Commerce

Industry

Global Luxury Cosmetics

Description

Delivered over 90% forecast accuracy for e-commerce platform at SKU weekly level.

Scope

  • E-commerce platform Forecast at monthly and weekly level including price changes and promotions
  • Calculated sell-in forecast for supply planning purposes
  • 170+ features identified for Machine Learning
  • Approx. 2000 SKU’s sold via 4 e-commerce platforms

Solution

  • Generated Demand Forecast on a monthly basis for the e-commerce business using ML techniques
  • Forecast Accuracy measured at a Product/Platform level on weekly and monthly basis
  • Impact of Launch + Promo/Discounts etc. for rolling 12 months and calculated Primary forecast for supply chain
  • Data collected from 10 sources including hourly promotions
  • Data trained with 2 years of history and validated with 1 year of historical sales

Results

  • Above 90% Forecast accuracy at product / platform level
  • ML non-linear forecasts are better than classical statistical techniques at inventory level
  • ML forecasts are driven by discount %, promos and 3 months prior sales

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